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BusinessDay reports that the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) has warned in its October monetary policy review that the US tariffs imposed on SA exports could shave 0.4 percentage points off GDP growth next year and cost as many as 40,000 jobs. Other studies estimate that up to 22,000 jobs could be lost.
The measures, which effectively ended SA’s preferential access under the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa), expose the vulnerabilities of SA’s industrial base. The US introduced “reciprocal” tariffs on 7 August, imposing duties on nearly two-thirds of SA’s exports to its third-largest trading partner. Most manufactured and agricultural products now face tariffs of about 30%, with vehicle and parts exports hit by a 25% duty and aluminium and copper products facing the steepest levy of 50%. The shock could ripple through multiple value chains, from cars and engineering to sugar and citrus. Platinum group metals (PGMs), manganese and coal were excluded.
The motor industry faces the sharpest blow. SA exported R35bn in vehicles and parts to the US in 2024 but now faces a 25% duty, while competitors from the EU, Japan and Korea may benefit from lower applied tariffs if deals are finalised. Agriculture and agroprocessing are also fully exposed, with citrus, sugar and wine now subject to 30% tariffs. According to a Reuters report, citrus and sugar farming together support about 300,000 jobs – many of them in areas with few alternative employment opportunities. The SARB indicated that “the loss of jobs and incomes could decimate some rural communities through localised general equilibrium effects”.
- Read the full original of the report in the above regard by Jana Marx at BusinessDay (subscriber access only)
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